Long EUR for long term

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Time to get long EUR.

Speculators have turned net long Euros for the first time since 2014 – when ECB started aggressively easing, and EURUSD was above 1.30.

Technically:

  • A medium term trendline at 1.10 has been broken.
  • 1.10 psychological round number taken out.

Fundamentally:

  • Euro area has large current account surplus vs US – should drive flows into Europe now that political situation has calmed.
  • ECB will soon begin to tighten policy, tapering QE.

 

Fair value for EURUSD is 1.30 based on PPP and current account differentials.

Current account differentials should drive FX markets in the medium-long term, as the path of monetary policy is becoming more clear.

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