Time to get long EUR.
Speculators have turned net long Euros for the first time since 2014 – when ECB started aggressively easing, and EURUSD was above 1.30.
- A medium term trendline at 1.10 has been broken.
- 1.10 psychological round number taken out.
- Euro area has large current account surplus vs US – should drive flows into Europe now that political situation has calmed.
- ECB will soon begin to tighten policy, tapering QE.
Fair value for EURUSD is 1.30 based on PPP and current account differentials.
Current account differentials should drive FX markets in the medium-long term, as the path of monetary policy is becoming more clear.
Loving this wooden effect laptop skin right now on my XPS 13.
I got it from Creatisto on Amazon.
I spent a lot of time and money on my computer setup:
I actually have two of those setups.
I thought I needed them because my trading requires a lot of RAM and processing power.
But I now discovered I actually don’t need those.
Recently, I started renting a powerful dedicated server for my trading.
It’s near my broker’s server in London, has more RAM and processing goodness than I could wish for, and it runs 24/7 without hiccups.
I then found I no longer needed my desktop, because I could just connect to my server remotely and do what I had to do.
So, right now I’m having fun managing all my trading using my XPS 13.
I took a bit of a loss in my trading account today, a few thousand quid.
And it made me rethink my life a bit.
I’m actually glad I took the loss.
I’m glad I got greedy and over-traded and lost big.
It made me realise that I should just leave my trading to my robots.
Even if they make slightly less money than if I traded manually,
It would free up my time dramatically.
And since time is the most valuable asset we have,
That’s worth it.
It made me realise that time is more important than money.
That money doesn’t get happiness,
But rather, getting experiences and doing interesting things.
Which brings me to the robots.
They often trade more consistently than I do.
Because they follow my trading rules perfectly.
They don’t get greedy.
They don’t overtrade.
I worked out that I probably spend around 6 hours per day looking at charts.
If I just left it to my trading robots and alert systems, that would probably go down to 1 hour per day.
Which means I would save 5 hours every day.
If I did that for the next 3 years,
That would be 5 x 260 x 3 = 3900 hours.
Which is 160 days!
Ridiculous, I know.
I’m not sure what I’m going to do with all that free time 🙂
Image credit: blueleaf.com
Yesterday’s month-end rebalancing flows were understandably USD negative, given the recent USD positioning in the market.
They have given us excellent levels to add to USD longs.
The USD uptrend should resume, given the strong fundamentals in play.
Donald Trump’s jawboning simply cannot weaken the USD materially, since he cannot reduce the structural dollar shortage, the $10 trillion off-shore debt or the normal mean reversion of term premia on longer dated treasuries.